Enrollment Summary

District 36 has relied upon the services of Dr. John Kasarda of the University of North Carolina for demography and enrollment studies since the early 1970’s. Dr. Kasarda also prepares demographic trends and enrollment trends for New Trier High School and the other five feeder districts. At the request of the School Board, the current District 36 study updates and expands Dr. Kasarda’s previous comprehensive review of 2001 and within its 63 pages, includes the following:

• detailed household and Winnetka school population data from the ‘60’s;
• overview of housing turnover and “teardown” data since the ‘70’s;
• explanation of student enrollment trends as they relate to housing turnover, family in-migration (“move-ins”) and fertility patterns;
• analysis of annual sources of enrollment change by school for the past 10 years;
• prediction of future enrollment trends by school over the next five years.

Context
District 36 is currently in its 16th year of K-8 student population growth: since 1987-88, school enrollment has climbed 69 % from 1,237 students to the present 2,094 total. This high rate of enrollment is slightly below Winnetka’s historical peak of 2,364 school-aged children that was reached in 1969-70.

Total Enrollment of Winnetka Public Schools

It is important to realize that the current population expansion results from different underlying factors (sustained low interest rates, faster housing turnover) than the previous boom (higher fertility rates). Thus, the rate of growth has been both slower and more prolonged than that of the 1960’s. Dr. Kasarda believes that any future contraction will also be more moderate, given that Winnetka’s attraction for young families has withstood both the current entry barrier of higher home prices and the historical inhibitor of housing turnover, high interest rates and/or economic slowdown. His study makes predictions of future enrollment by school and in aggregate by estimating the size of the new Kindergarten classes, making assumptions about the rate of housing turnover, teardown activity, and fertility patterns among households.

Current Demographics:
The number of households has remained steady in Winnetka since 1960 as the village is considered to be built out fully. The number of school-aged children, however has fluctuated depending on the rates of new families moving in, teardown activity, and fertility patterns.

In analyzing national census data by age, the Winnetka population is strongly skewed toward school-aged children (5-14 years) and contains far fewer 25-34 year olds than the national distribution. It is believed that the latter age group is held back from moving into Winnetka because of the current housing price levels. Based on upper income fertility data (i.e., more mothers are waiting longer to start their families) and recent housing turnover rates of established families moving here when their children near elementary school entrance, Dr. Kasarda has advised the Board that the current dearth of 25-34 year olds should have little impact on future school enrollments. The large number of under 5’s in 2000 underscores why the schools have enrolled large Kindergarten classes for the past few years. For the coming school year 2006-07, the District expects about 195 entering Kindergarteners, which is in line with previous years’ class sizes.

Looking Ahead:
As in previous years’ reports, Dr. Kasarda has modeled three different enrollment projections (by school and in aggregate) for the District: Series A which is based on slower housing turnover than expected; Series B which is based on average housing turnover, student in-migration based on previous years’ levels; and Series C which is predicated on faster than previously experienced housing turnover and in-migration. All of the projections hold fertility rates constant. A chart of Winnetka Public Schools actual student growth since 1987-88 with the three different forecasted levels of enrollment is shown below:

Because Winnetka’s actual enrollments over the past 7 out of 10 years have outpaced Dr. Kasarda’s previous “B” series projections, the Board spent a lot of time analyzing why this had occurred and asked questions around the validity of planning for future “B” enrollments. Winnetka’s recent departure from Kasarda’s “B” estimate was explained by the fact that in the late ‘90s, the sustained drop in interest rates fueled higher than expected housing turnover and brought many more families into the village. Further, in 2003-04, more students from area private/parochial schools transferred into the WPS system than typical. Dr. Kasarda also told the Board that in his 35 years of experience as a demographer and in looking at North Shore district patterns in particular, no District has ever approximated “C” growth over time. Given Dr. Kasarda’s explanation and the past year’s increase in mortgage rates, the Board felt the current “C” projection was too aggressive to use as a planning tool at this time.

In order to plan for slower growth (the “A” projection), one would need to believe that a sustained economic slowdown loomed with much less housing turnover (including teardowns) than previous years’ activity. Given Dr. Kasarda’s observation that even in the deepest years of population contraction and very high interest rates in the late ‘70s, Winnetka still experience positive family in-migration (i.e., more families with children continued to move into Winnetka than moved out), the Board did not view planning for an “A” level contraction as prudent.

With all that in mind, and understanding that all these projections are an approximate quantification of what is known/expected today for the future, the Board chose to use the “B” forecast to plan for student growth. Breakdown by school follows:

In order to refine the overall estimate, a “pre-school census” is being taken with the help of the Winnetka Alliance for Early Childhood to better understand the potential future size of kindergarten classes. Additionally, the Board will ask Dr. Kasarda to re-run the enrollment study in Fall, 2006 to account for Winnetka’s actual enrollment figures as school resumes to see if any significant changes result.

A full copy of the 2005 Kasarda study of demographic trends and enrollment projections may be obtained at the District 36 office by calling Susan Pershing at 847-446-9400.

December 2006 Annual Study of New Trier High School and Sender School (Posted February 2007)

In December 2006 Dr. Kasarda submitted his most recent demographic and enrollment study of New Trier High School and its sender districts. This report continues to project sustained high enrollments for Winnetka although slightly modifies the forecasts made in the 2005 District 36 study, showing a modest 1.6% decline from 2,094 students in 2005-06 to 2,060 students in 2006-07. This decline in projected students is attributable to “substantially fluctuating kindergarten enrollments since 2000” and the continued high reliance on family move-ins for District class totals. In the most recent update, Dr. Kasarda advises District 36 to closely monitor entering kindergarten enrollments annually to help inform his projections (which is and will continue to be done).

This most recent study again holds fertility rates constant for all projections, and for the baseline (Series B) projection, assumes that “given the current householder age distribution, housing turnover will remain at its most recent levels and (given the quality of public schools) continue to attract families with pre-school and school-age children in the coming decade.” This net student in-migration is anticipated to substantially offset the likely trend of smaller incoming kindergarten classes replacing larger graduating 8th grade classes, According to this report, total enrollment is expected to be stable through 2009-10 then decline to 1,994 students in 2013-14 before leveling off at slightly above that figure, with 2,025 total students in 2016-17.

The following graph shows the similarity of the two Kasarda B projections:

Research in the District 36 archives unearthed total student enrollments going back to 1942. The following graph shows enrollments over a 60-year period and includes the two Kasarda B Projections:

A full copy of the 2006 Kasarda study of demographic trends and enrollment projections may be obtained at the District 36 office by calling Susan Pershing at 847-446-9400.

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